This year's flu season is arriving faster than last year's, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's most recent surveillance report, with hospitalizations already running ahead of the comparable point in the 2025-26 season and forecast to keep climbing through the week ending Nov. 21.
In its report for the week ending Oct. 31, the CDC estimated at least 1.7 million flu illnesses, 25,000 hospitalizations and 1,400 deaths so far this season nationwide. The agency's hospital surveillance network, FluSurv-NET, recorded a cumulative hospitalization rate of 6.0 per 100,000 people through that week, up from 3.9 per 100,000 just a week earlier. Separately, the CDC confirmed three pediatric deaths this season, including the season's first, in a child whose case was linked to the H1N1 strain and reported in the week ending Oct. 10.
An unusual strain mix
The season's viral makeup is notably different from last year's. Of the influenza A viruses that public health labs subtyped in the week ending Oct. 31, 97.7% were A(H1N1)pdm09 and just 1.8% were A(H3N2); season-to-date, H1N1 accounts for 98.5% of subtyped viruses. That is a reversal from the 2025-26 season, when H3N2 — and in particular a subclade known as “K” — dominated and drove a severe, early wave of illness. The CDC has also noted unusually high genetic diversity among this season's circulating H1N1 viruses, and says it is too early to know which versions will end up predominating.
Looking ahead, the CDC's FluSight modeling team is forecasting a “likely increase” nationally in both new flu hospital admissions and the share of emergency-room visits attributed to flu for the week ending Nov. 21, with admissions projected to range from roughly 6,900 to 30,100 for that week alone. Reporting on the agency's data, outlets including 2 Minute Medicine and Contemporary Pediatrics have highlighted the early pediatric death and the unusually fast hospitalization climb as signs this season could prove more severe than last year's, though the CDC cautions that all current-season figures are preliminary and typically rise as delayed reports are added.
The agency continues to recommend a flu vaccine for everyone six months and older who has not yet received one this season, noting that vaccination remains worthwhile even after the traditional October target date, and that antiviral treatment started early is especially important for people at higher risk of complications.
