Oil prices firmed Friday after Iran published a restrictive draft plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz that would bar U.S. and Israeli vessels outright, clouding hopes for a swift resolution to the shipping disruption that has rattled energy markets for months.
Brent crude rose about 1.25% to roughly $83.52 a barrel, while U.S. benchmark WTI added about 1.1% to near $78.14, though both benchmarks remained on course for a weekly decline of 7% to 8%. The strait normally carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG trade, and it has been disrupted since the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran began in late February.
Iranian state media's draft proposal would also require nations "that have harmed Iran" to pay compensation before transiting the waterway, with penalties for rule violations set at 20% of a ship's cargo value. Separately reported terms describe Iran seeking transit fees in the range of 5% to 7% of cargo value, compared with roughly 3% proposed by Oman, a gap that has stalled a final agreement; Washington opposes any transit fee at all. Iran and Oman are also discussing a route-sharing arrangement under which inbound traffic would transit Iranian waters and outbound traffic would pass through Omani waters.
"It's not the market pricing in a bad deal, it's pricing in confirmation that whatever emerges is a managed, conditional corridor," said Lin Ye, an analyst at Rystad Energy. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights said traders still lack clarity on what a final deal would actually require of shipping companies. Adding to the uncertainty, Yemen's Houthi forces reported missile and drone attacks on Saudi positions this week, underscoring the continued security risk to regional shipping beyond the strait itself.
Traders are also weighing Friday's surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report, which could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated and, in turn, support oil demand — an offsetting factor against the supply-side uncertainty coming out of the Hormuz talks. For now, the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most consequential chokepoint for global energy markets, and further movement in crude prices is likely to track the pace of the Iran-Oman negotiations as closely as any other single factor.
