It may seem like this winter has been one filled with snow, snow and more snow, but when it comes to determining exactly how much snow has fallen, it looks like this year is pretty much “average.”

To gauge water availability for summer irrigation three factors must be taken into consideration: reservoir storage, snow pack that will translate into stream flow, and soil saturation.

Brett Prevedel, district conservationist for the Natural Resource Conservation Service, said statistics collected in the three areas show the chances of the Uintah Basin having a better than normal water year are slim right now.

Prevedel was summarizing the information found in the most recent Utah Water Supply Outlook Report released by the NRCS.

Recognizing that forecasts of any kind are not perfect, Prevedel prefers to use a range of values with specific probabilities of occurrence. The middle of the range is expressed by the 50 percent which means there is a 50 percent chance that the actual flow will be above average, and a 50 percent chance that the actual flow will be below average.

Using this standard Prevedel determined that there is a 44 percent chance of having normal stream flows in western Uintah Basin and a 56 percent chance of normal stream flow in eastern Uinta Basin. However, there is less than a 20 percent chance of having stream flows exceed the 30 year average basin wide.

“I would say that we are in slightly better shape overall than last year at this time,” the resource conservationist explained, “but it appears the best we can realistically hope for is an average water year. A good wet March would help a lot.”

The good news for irrigators is that there is presently more storage in the reservoirs than at the same time last season.

Present snowpack estimates are not as promising as the reservoir data. Most of the annual stream flow originates as snowfall that has accumulated in the mountains during the winter and early springs. Hydrologists estimate the amount of runoff that will occur when it melts.

According to the Utah Water Supply Outlook Report, snowpack is below average at 80 percent, which is 96 percent of last year. Individual sites on the North Slope range from 57 percent to 103 percent and on the South Slope range from 61 percent to 102 percent of average.

Of all the factors used for determining the available water this summer, soil saturation is the farthest below average

“Soil moisture is a real concern,” Prevedel said. “When there is less moisture stored in the upper layers, then it takes more water to get a good start this spring.”

Soil moisture values in runoff producing areas are at 17 percent of saturation in the upper 2 feet of soil compared to 31 percent last year.

To see the entire water report go to: www.ut.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/